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use_ranges_to_understand_risk [2016/07/03 13:38] (current)
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 +====== Use Ranges to Understand Risk ======
 +The idea is to use Planning poker showing range by using "​likely"​ and "worst case" estimates.
 +As Steve McConnell says “A single-point estimate is usually a target masquerading as an estimate.” Further he says “There is a limit to how well a project can go but no limit to how many problems can occur."​ To mitigate this, people should present ranges of value rather than single values. The ranges can be used to understand where people think there is a lot of risk.
 +One way of doing this in planning poker is to ask people to offer up two cards instead of one when estimating where the first card is the "​likely"​
 +estimate and the second card is the "worst case" estimate (note that not everything should be just worse case of 100). You can use the variability
 +to either produce a better single point estimate (more informed) or track both estimates.
 +How does this work. If I were to read a user story and ask the team to estimate it, I might have 3, 5, 5, 5, 5, 8 as the responses. From this you
 +would think that people are pretty comfortable with the result and would not be surprised to see a 5 as the consensus estimate. But if the team
 +were to use 2 numbers as above you might get something like (3,40), (5,8), (5,5) , (5,40), (5,20), (8,13). This says that at least 3 team members
 +think there is a lot of risk and after discussion you would not be surprised to see the consensus estimate to be 8 or 13 (assuming you only record one estimate).
 +Note that this range approach can also be used on the detailed task estimates. Also this "​range"​ approach can be used against a Product Backlog
 +to discussion what is likely to be released by a certain date.
 +{{tag>​Team Estimates Forecast Points EstimationPractice Range}}
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