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superforecasting_-_the_art_and_science_of_prediction_-_philip_e._tetlock_and_dan_gardner [2016/12/18 12:48]
hpsamios
superforecasting_-_the_art_and_science_of_prediction_-_philip_e._tetlock_and_dan_gardner [2020/06/04 11:31] (current)
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 ====== "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction" - Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner ====== ====== "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction" - Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner ======
  
-====== Reference ====== +====== Notes and Review ======
- +
-[[https://kindle.amazon.com/work/superforecasting-science-prediction-philip-tetlock-ebook/B00RJBD8HK/B00RKO6MS8|Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction"]] +
-====== Notes ======+
  
 I loved this book! To me the main message is that we all understand that prediction is hard but we don't do a lot to improve our ability to predict or to calibrate our predictions. In other words, when we make a prediction we treat is as a static item - we don't update it based on new knowledge and we hardly ever do a reasonable analysis to determine whether we have made a good prediction or now. To quote: I loved this book! To me the main message is that we all understand that prediction is hard but we don't do a lot to improve our ability to predict or to calibrate our predictions. In other words, when we make a prediction we treat is as a static item - we don't update it based on new knowledge and we hardly ever do a reasonable analysis to determine whether we have made a good prediction or now. To quote:
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 "To demonstrate the limits of learning from lectures, the great philosopher and teacher Michael Polanyi wrote a detailed explanation of the physics of riding a bicycle: “The rule observed by the cyclist is this. When he starts falling to the right he turns the handlebars to the right, so that the course of the bicycle is deflected along a curve towards the right. This results in a centrifugal force pushing the cyclist to the left and offsets the gravitational force dragging him down to the right.” It continues in that vein and closes: “A simple analysis shows that for a given angle of unbalance the curvature of each winding is inversely proportional to the square of the speed at which the cyclist is proceeding.” It is hard to imagine a more precise description. “But does this tell us exactly how to ride a bicycle?” Polanyi asked. “No. You obviously cannot adjust the curvature of your bicycle’s path in proportion to the ratio of your unbalance over the square of your speed; and if you could you would fall off the machine, for there are a number of other factors to be taken into account in practice which are left out in the formulation of this rule.”8 The knowledge required to ride a bicycle can’t be fully captured in words and conveyed to others. We need “tacit knowledge,” the sort we only get from bruising experience. To learn to ride a bicycle, we must try to ride one. It goes badly at first. You fall to one side, you fall to the other. But keep at it and with practice it becomes effortless—although if you had to explain how to stay upright." "To demonstrate the limits of learning from lectures, the great philosopher and teacher Michael Polanyi wrote a detailed explanation of the physics of riding a bicycle: “The rule observed by the cyclist is this. When he starts falling to the right he turns the handlebars to the right, so that the course of the bicycle is deflected along a curve towards the right. This results in a centrifugal force pushing the cyclist to the left and offsets the gravitational force dragging him down to the right.” It continues in that vein and closes: “A simple analysis shows that for a given angle of unbalance the curvature of each winding is inversely proportional to the square of the speed at which the cyclist is proceeding.” It is hard to imagine a more precise description. “But does this tell us exactly how to ride a bicycle?” Polanyi asked. “No. You obviously cannot adjust the curvature of your bicycle’s path in proportion to the ratio of your unbalance over the square of your speed; and if you could you would fall off the machine, for there are a number of other factors to be taken into account in practice which are left out in the formulation of this rule.”8 The knowledge required to ride a bicycle can’t be fully captured in words and conveyed to others. We need “tacit knowledge,” the sort we only get from bruising experience. To learn to ride a bicycle, we must try to ride one. It goes badly at first. You fall to one side, you fall to the other. But keep at it and with practice it becomes effortless—although if you had to explain how to stay upright."
  
 +
 +====== Want to Know More? ======
 +
 +  * [[https://kindle.amazon.com/work/superforecasting-science-prediction-philip-tetlock-ebook/B00RJBD8HK/B00RKO6MS8|Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction"]]
  
 {{tag>Book Learning Basis Forecasting Prediction Review}} {{tag>Book Learning Basis Forecasting Prediction Review}}
  
-~~LINKBACK~~ +
-~~DISCUSSION~~+
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