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how_should_we_update_our_estimates [2019/01/21 09:12]
Hans Samios
how_should_we_update_our_estimates [2019/07/01 13:31] (current)
Hans Samios
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 This is a mistake. ​ This is a mistake. ​
  
-The reality is that no amount of additional planning would have resulted in a better estimate. In fact the evidence indicates otherwise; estimates get worse the more time you spend on it (mainly because you are building guesses on top of guesses as you think longer about the problem). It is simply wrong to "​blame"​ the estimate for the fact that there is now more work than expected. The only way you could have found this out was by doing the working, getting the feedback from the customers. (See [[blog:​our_estimates_are_terrible|Our Estimates are Terrible!]] for an example of this kind of thinking)+The reality is that no amount of additional planning would have resulted in a better estimate. In fact the evidence indicates otherwise; estimates get worse the more time you spend on it (mainly because you are building guesses on top of guesses as you think longer about the problem). It is simply wrong to "​blame"​ the estimate for the fact that there is now more work than expected. The only way you could have found this out was by doing the work, getting the feedback from the customers. (See [[blog:​our_estimates_are_terrible|Our Estimates are Terrible!]] for an example of this kind of thinking)
  
 What this tells you is that you should not update a record of the estimate once you have started real work on it. That way an estimate stays an estimate, and has the same basis (and is good as) as any other estimate that we have in the system. Using this basis we can compare all the estimates, safe in the knowledge that they have the same status - "we haven'​t start working on this yet". What this tells you is that you should not update a record of the estimate once you have started real work on it. That way an estimate stays an estimate, and has the same basis (and is good as) as any other estimate that we have in the system. Using this basis we can compare all the estimates, safe in the knowledge that they have the same status - "we haven'​t start working on this yet".
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  • Last modified: 2019/07/01 13:31
  • by Hans Samios